6 October 2026

Yemen's government pushes the Houthis back from the Bab el-Mandeb; Mocha claim still disputed (5 Oct)

On Monday, a day after Yemen's presidential council declared all-out war on the Houthis, government forces backed by heavy Saudi air power swept north along the Red Sea coast from the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb. Yemeni officials told AP that they had retaken the town of Dhubab, just north of the strait, along with Bab and Hadeid, and witnesses saw government tanks rolling in. By late Monday, Reuters' government sources said the troops had reached the outskirts of Mocha, the port the Houthis seized in early September, and the Defence Ministry said the city had fallen. AFP's military sources would only say that the city's last supply road had been cut, and the Houthis called the government's claims baseless. Subsequent Reuters/Al-Monitor reporting on 7 Oct treated Monday's "reached Mocha" line as premature — so treat full capture as unconfirmed. The Saudi-led coalition said more than 100 jets flew at dawn, that it now provides "air protection" over the strait, and that its navy hit depots of mines and explosive boats in Hodeidah.

The Houthis hit back. They said they had fired missiles and drones at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, the Aramco refinery at Rabigh, Abha airport and the Khamis Mushait air base. AFP reporters and residents heard loud explosions in northern Riyadh on Monday evening, but Saudi Arabia has not confirmed any damage. The group also declared Saudi airspace unsafe for civilian flights and "the theatre of operations of our armed forces". A Saudi energy source told AFP that a Houthi attack on Sunday had again stopped pumping on the East-West pipeline, the kingdom's main route for exports to the Red Sea while Hormuz is closed. Around Taiz the Houthis kept tightening the siege. Asked about the offensive, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Saudis "have a right to defend themselves". A US official and a regional official told AP that Washington had helped with intelligence, target identification and planning.

If the coastal gains hold — Dhubab and the Bab el-Mandeb push are the best-attested pieces — the Houthis lose shoreline that let them threaten the Red Sea route in September, and one of the two Gulf chokepoints at war starts to ease while Hormuz stays shut. The think tank ISW describes a collapse of Houthi lines stretching about 30 km north from the strait. It expects government forces to pause within one to two weeks to dig in against a counter-attack. ISW also reads Riyadh's real aim as securing the strait before any truce talks, which is far narrower than the government's promise to retake all of Yemen. The Houthis can still reach ships with drones fired from the highlands.

Why it matters: This is the first big reversal of the Houthis' September land grab on the Red Sea, and it bears directly on a global shipping chokepoint. Mocha's status remains disputed; the confirmed turn is the push off Bab el-Mandeb and Dhubab. That is a material change from the 5 Oct item, which covered the declaration of war while the Houthis were still advancing.

Turkey and Pakistan agree to send forces to Saudi Arabia, the first use of the Mecca defence pact (5 Oct)

The foreign and defence ministers and military chiefs of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held an emergency meeting in Riyadh on Monday. They agreed to "move immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defence commitments" and to "provide the agreed military forces and capabilities and ensure their rapid deployment in the Kingdom". Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was there, as was Turkey's chief of general staff. Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman said the allies would "activate collective deterrence measures" against the attacks "and all those responsible for them". The joint statement condemned the attempted targeting of Mecca and Medina without naming the Houthis, and named a retired Pakistani general as the alliance's first secretary-general.

The three countries signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 7 August. Like NATO's founding treaty, it treats an attack on one as an attack on all, and Al Jazeera says this is the first time it has been invoked. The statement gave no troop numbers, units, roles or dates, and said each deployment will follow national law. Until now Ankara and Islamabad had held back, partly to protect their roles as go-betweens in the US–Iran war. Only last week, Pakistan's foreign minister was floating a political track with the Houthis that Tehran had suggested.

If the deployment goes ahead, NATO's second-largest army and the Muslim world's only nuclear-armed state will be helping to defend Saudi Arabia during an active war with an Iranian ally. Turkey would be acting outside NATO, and Pakistan shares a border with Iran. This is the clearest sign yet of a Gulf security bloc that does not depend on Washington, even though the US is still feeding intelligence to the Saudi campaign. The next things to watch are what forces actually arrive and whether they stay on air defence or move into combat.

Why it matters: A mutual-defence pact has moved from paper to deployment, with Turkey and Pakistan committing to defend Saudi Arabia against Iran's Houthi allies. That is a major alliance shift, not the pact talk already shipped on 25 Sep.

S2 Underground — The Wire, 5 Oct 2026 (2300Z)

Houthis again hit a Saudi East-West pipeline pumping station (smoke plume ~30 mi; Saudis claim still operational); UK Section 34 dispersal order locked down Gosport to shield migrant boat arrivals; a Siberian plague-lab researcher died after a Yersinia pestis tube break (197 under watch, no secondary cases yet); Hormuz merchant strikes continued; and the U.S. abruptly pulled B-1Bs from RAF Fairford while tankers sat at Al Udeid.

Saudi East-West pipeline: Overnight Houthi strike on another pumping station; locals reported heavy smoke. Fighting also reported in Riyadh, Yanbu, and Jizan as Saudi-backed militias clash with Houthis. Saudi sources say the pipeline still runs, but a 30-mile smoke plume is a bad sign for repairs — and Houthis have repeatedly waited for fixes then hit again until diplomacy shifts.

UK Gosport lockdown: Over the weekend authorities issued a Section 34 dispersal order for the entire town of Gosport, enabling police to order locals to leave (or arrest them) if they film migrant arrivals. Concurrently, coordinated migrant groups staged on French beaches while boats were escorted in. Analyst view: not martial law, but a major civil-liberty concern aimed at concealing the arrivals.

Siberia plague lab: A researcher at the Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute died days after accidentally breaking a tube of Yersinia pestis; she followed protocol and was hospitalized. 197 people under observation; so far only the original researcher infected — monitor for secondary cases.

Hormuz shipping: Two merchants hit over the weekend, two more on Monday; UKMTO reported one vessel turning back after an Iranian hail/warning — read as low confidence in U.S. protection.

B-1B pull from RAF Fairford: U.S. withdrew the B-1B flight in what closed-source base reporting calls an unannounced, emergency-like move (bombers left before usual tanker support). Pentagon hints "security"; analyst rejects that — a dozen USAF tankers sit on the tarmac at Al Udeid (hit hard earlier in the war; emptying Al Udeid has been an escalation tell). Mildenhall/Lakenheath stay at heightened posture with U.S. presence intact. Possible reads: de-escalation, feint/forward redeploy, or munitions/cost calculus (JASSM/JDAM short) making the UK B-1 presence unnecessary given B-2 CONUS reach.

Why it matters: Another strike on exposed Saudi oil infrastructure, a UK town-wide dispersal order to shield migrant landings, and an abrupt B-1 pull from Fairford while Al Udeid remains a live escalation indicator — all against continued Hormuz kinetic pressure.